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Armenia's Trust In CSTO Eroded
- Armenia sought CSTO support but received no unified military response, deepening mistrust in the alliance.
- Prime Minister Pashinyan refused to sign the summit declaration because it lacked CSTO action on Azerbaijan's aggression.
CSTO Serves Regime Security More Than Collective Defense
- Member states mainly use CSTO as regime insurance and to keep Moscow appeased, not as a robust collective defense.
- Kazakhstan's January 2022 CSTO deployment illustrates the organization's role in regime stability rather than broader security.
War Will Leave Russia Geopolitically Weakened
- Whatever the war's end, Russia will emerge diminished militarily, economically, and geopolitically, weakening its ability to reassure CSTO members.
- Europe reducing reliance on Russian energy and military losses in Ukraine will erode Russian regional clout.