The Rest Is Politics 513. Inside Iran: The Country Trump Cannot Control? (Question Time)
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Mar 19, 2026 
Karim Sadjadpour, a Carnegie Endowment Iran analyst, unpacks why Iran is so often misunderstood. He explores how nationalism helps a weak regime endure. The conversation ranges from Mojtaba Khamenei’s fraught succession to risks of regional escalation, oil chokepoints, proxy networks, and why Trump may face a conflict that pauses but never truly ends.
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Why A Hated Iranian Regime Can Still Survive
- Karim Sadjadpour argues Iran is polarized but not evenly, with roughly 80 to 85 percent opposing the regime and 15 to 20 percent forming a hard core base.
- Dictators survive on depth, not breadth: an armed, organized minority can outlast a hostile majority, especially while civilians are sheltering under bombardment.
Why Mojtaba Khamenei Got The Job
- Mojtaba Khamenei inherited power because the regime chose continuity after Ali Khamenei's assassination rather than reopening the principles of 1979.
- Karim Sadjadpour says the leadership decapitation has so far made elites close ranks, but postwar economic ruin could still produce retrenchment, implosion, or slow adaptation.
Why Post Regime Iran Could Produce A Putin Type
- Karim Sadjadpour sees post-Islamic Republic Iran potentially resembling post-Soviet Russia, where collapse creates a vacuum later filled by a security insider rather than democrats.
- He warns grievance-driven nationalism could replace Islamism, yet unlike Russia, Iran historically sought Western partnership against northern predators like Russia.