The Rest Is Politics 513. Inside Iran: The Country Trump Cannot Control? (Question Time)
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Mar 19, 2026 
Karim Sadjadpour, a Carnegie Endowment Iran analyst, unpacks why Iran is so often misunderstood. He explores how nationalism helps a weak regime endure. The conversation ranges from Mojtaba Khamenei’s fraught succession to risks of regional escalation, oil chokepoints, proxy networks, and why Trump may face a conflict that pauses but never truly ends.
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Why Post Regime Iran Could Produce A Putin Type
- Karim Sadjadpour sees post-Islamic Republic Iran potentially resembling post-Soviet Russia, where collapse creates a vacuum later filled by a security insider rather than democrats.
- He warns grievance-driven nationalism could replace Islamism, yet unlike Russia, Iran historically sought Western partnership against northern predators like Russia.
Why Iran Hit The Gulf Far Beyond Oil
- Iran's attacks on Gulf states were not a surprise; Karim Sadjadpour says Tehran had openly promised to regionalize the war and raise the political cost for Washington.
- Beyond oil leverage, he says ideology drives the strikes: Iran's Vision 1979 collides with UAE and Saudi models built on stability, investment, and forward-looking development.
The Elevator Story That Explains UAE And Iran
- Karim Sadjadpour uses Sheikh Zayed and Ayatollah Khomeini as a vivid comparison for why the UAE surged ahead while Iran collapsed into isolation.
- He says in 1978 both "went to the same elevator," but Zayed pressed up and Khomeini pressed down, producing Dubai and Abu Dhabi on one side and a pariah Iran on the other.