Market At Risk Of Correcting In A 'Risk-Off' Reset? | Lance Roberts

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Jan 31, 2026

Lance Roberts, portfolio manager and macro-focused market analyst, shares his risk-centered take on recent market action. He discusses the breakdown from a tight trading range and the odds of a risk-off reset. Conversation covers AI stock froth, valuation measures like PEG, sector rotations (notably energy), technical breakdowns in the S&P, and the volatile moves in gold and silver.

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INSIGHT

Energy Stocks Drifted From Oil Fundamentals

Energy stocks historically track oil prices, but the correlation diverged over recent years creating a valuation gap.
That gap warns investors energy stocks may be trading ahead of fundamental drivers and could mean short-term risk.

INSIGHT

Reflation Narrative Is Fragile

Markets' reflation narrative expects strong earnings growth with little inflation, creating optimistic valuations.
That narrative depends on profit-margin expansion and is vulnerable to inflation or Fed policy shifts.

ADVICE

Use CPI And Lags To Gauge Fed Risk

Watch CPI composition and lags: shelter weight can mask other inflation and energy feeds CPI with ~3-month lag.
Use CPI and its timing to anticipate Fed responses, not broad narratives.

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Stocks have been stuck in a compressing trading range for the past several months.And recently they've broken down below it.That development, plus a number of other headwinds weighing on the markets, suggests that stocks could experience a 'risk-off reset' soon, falling substantially lower.Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds for this, as well as the recent Federal Reserve guidance, growing concerns in AI stocks, the bull & bear cases for 2026, this week's gut-wrenching plunge in the precious metals, as well as Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.

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