Glenn Diesen - Greater Eurasia Podcast

Larry Johnson: The U.S. Will Exhaust Itself & Lose War Against Iran

9 snips
Mar 1, 2026
Larry Johnson, a former CIA analyst and counterterrorism staffer, explains why the U.S. risks losing a war with Iran. He discusses Iran’s vast missile forces and survivable infrastructure. He highlights missile-defense exhaustion, vulnerabilities of U.S. bases and Gulf partners, the Strait of Hormuz’s leverage, and how prolonged attrition favors Iran.
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INSIGHT

Iran's Hidden Missile Arsenal Exceeded US Estimates

  • The US badly underestimated Iran's ballistic missile stockpile and survivability.
  • Larry Johnson estimates Iran has over 10,000 missiles, diverse mobile launchers and deep underground storage that bunker-busters haven't neutralized.
INSIGHT

Attrition Will Deplete US Air Defense Munitions

  • A war of attrition favors Iran because US/Israeli air defenses have limited interceptor stockpiles.
  • Johnson notes Patriot production ~800 missiles/year so 400 incoming rockets could exhaust a year's supply rapidly.
INSIGHT

Air Power Alone Won't Secure Regime Change

  • Air power alone cannot decisively win against Iran without ground forces.
  • Johnson argues historical cases (Vietnam, Korea, Iraq) show bombing can't force surrender and deploying large ground forces into Iran is unrealistic.
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