Risk off as war in Iran escalates. Also: possible drivers of weaker gold here.

19 snips

Mar 19, 2026

Hostile strikes on gas infrastructure push global energy prices and supply disruption risks into focus. Risk-off market moves hit equities, crypto and small caps as correlations rise. Central bank actions and dollar-yield dynamics get scrutiny. A new narrative for gold demand and a speculative angle on US strategy over shipping lanes are explored.

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INSIGHT

Middle East Attacks Send Energy Prices Soaring

Geopolitical strikes on South Pars and Qatar LNG sharply raised global gas and oil prices and spurred risk-off moves in equities and crypto.
John Hardy notes TTF gas jumped above €70 and Brent spiked to ~$115 while WTI stayed nearer $97, highlighting regional price divergence.

INSIGHT

Energy Shock Increases Market Correlations

Rising energy risk pushed correlations and downside across asset classes, with major indices and small caps notably weaker.
John Hardy cites one-month correlation index jumping to 36 from below 10 and Nasdaq/S&P down ~1.3–1.5%.

INSIGHT

Fed Outlook Keeps Cuts On Hold

Fed projections and dot plot skewed slightly hawkish, reducing market odds of multiple 2026 cuts and lifting front-end yields.
John Hardy highlights two camps in dot plot and two-year yields near 3.81% with cuts priced down to ~11bp.

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The war in Iran has taken on new levels of concern after Israeli and Iranian attacks on gas production infrastructure in Iran and Qatar, respectively, with the dispersion of global energy prices exploding further on the news. Elsewhere, the central bank cavalcade continues with the Bank of Japan helping USDJPY steer away from new highs. The gold sell-off has suddenly accelerated and there are some compelling narratives and reasons for it to continue lower if these are important drivers. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

First the link to Michael McNair X post outlining the big structural shift in what powers gold and why it is under pressure and could remain so here.

Then, the latest Goehring & Rozencwajg long-form report on commodities with great coverage of the scale of disruption from the Hormuz Strait closure, some long term historical perspectives on commodities and whether they are too cheap and lots more. Simple registry required to download.

Important - following link is highly speculative and I am not endorsing the views, but it's one possible lens for how the situation is playing out.
Finally, a massive tweet thread from shipping industry executive John Konrad on how the US may be leveraging this situation to further its strategy of regaining more control over global shipping routes and even ships themselves, together with other possible domestic agendas.

About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

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Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

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