Milk Road Macro The Biggest Economic Crisis in History May Have Already Started (Oil Shock Explained) w/ Rory Johnston
Mar 31, 2026
Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context and known as the 'oil quant', explains the largest oil supply shock in history after a Strait of Hormuz closure. He unpacks why current prices feel too low, how tanker routes and stock releases offset shortages, and the timing of when different regions will actually feel physical scarcity.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
White House Jawboning Has Muted Anticipatory Price Spikes
- Political jawboning, especially by the U.S., has repeatedly suppressed price rallies despite worsening physical fundamentals.
- Johnston says White House messaging convinces traders the war will end imminently, muting anticipatory paper-market moves.
Analyst Expectation Of A Short War Proved Wrong
- Rory expected a short, decisive conflict early on and was surprised it persisted, altering market expectations.
- He recounts expecting a 'made-for-TV' quick strike and being wrong as weekly optimism repeatedly failed to materialize.
The Oil Shock Moves Like An Air Pocket Through Regions
- The supply shock travels like an air pocket: regions feel it with delay as existing tankers and stocks deplete.
- Johnston projects East Africa hit first, then Asia this week, Europe next week, North America in ~2 weeks.