The Red Line 9 - The Consequences of War with Iran
Jan 26, 2020
Raphael Cohen, a US Air Force strategy advisor at RAND; Jeffrey Miser, a politics professor expert on power and the Middle East; Yeh Morish, geopolitics podcaster focused on Iran’s economy and strategy; and Hilal Kashan, Beirut-based Iran scholar. They discuss why US–Iran tensions keep rising. They explore Iran’s politics and resilience. They examine military feasibility, regional fallout, economic risks, and maritime chokepoint threats.
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Shiism And Nationalism Explain Iran's Unity
- Iran's leadership blends Shiism and nationalism which creates durable internal unity across ethnic groups.
- Hilal Kashan explains this merger dates to the 16th century and helps Iran remain pluralistic despite diverse populations.
IRGC And Institutions Lock In Regime Resilience
- The supreme leader and IRGC control Iran's political joints, making top-down change from protests unlikely.
- Kashan says the IRGC and new revolution-protecting institutions were created to prevent a Shah-style collapse and will suppress mass uprisings.
Nuclear Program Driven By Status Not Ideological Obsession
- Iran's nuclear program has broad national consensus as parity and status are the goals rather than necessarily weapons.
- Kashan traces motives to historical lessons from the Iran–Iraq war and desire for regional respect, not an inherent drive to attack Israel.
