This is how the RECESSION starts in 2026 | Phil Neuhart

Phil Neuhart is the Director of Market and Economic Research at First Citizens Wealth. He joins Phil Rosen on Full Signal to break down the tension between rising geopolitical uncertainty and a surprisingly resilient stock market, the real recession trigger to watch in the labor market, why mega caps may be less insulated than investors think, the Fed's impossible position, and what an AI unwind would actually look like.

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Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

0:20 - Uncertainty vs. resilience

1:30 - Tail risks investors are ignoring

2:50 - The bear case

3:25 - Labor market as a recession trigger

5:40 - Stocks insulated from oil?

6:30 - Earnings season and the multiple contraction

10:20 - Complex Fed outlook

12:55 - What would trigger the first rate cut?

13:50 - Kevin Warsh's problem

15:30 - AI trade rotation

18:10 - Bullish small caps

20:20 - AI as scapegoat for layoffs

24:50 - Recession odds

27:35 - Does history still apply to this market?

28:50 - Follow Phil Neuhart

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