Inside the Strategy Room 295. AI, strategy, and the future of work: What business leaders need to know
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Mar 19, 2026 Robin Nuttall, McKinsey partner and Oxford Business Fellow, and Jean-Paul Carvalho, Oxford political economy professor and director of Oxford Elevate, discuss AI and strategy. They explore AI as cognitive automation and its labor effects. They debate scaling AI inside incumbents, managerial and trust risks, and where value will be captured in the AI value chain.
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AI Is Uniquely Cognitive And Globally Scalable
- AI is distinct because it automates cognitive tasks rather than physical ones.
- Jean-Paul Carvalho notes cognitive automation, global scalability, and generative knowledge create rare, broad economic and security implications.
AI Boosts Individual Productivity But Can Substitute Labor
- Early evidence shows AI raises individual productivity but can substitute for human labor in many tasks.
- Examples include customer-support assistants resolving 15% more cases per hour and AI recruiters outperforming humans in hires and retention.
Substitution And Productivity Effects Largely Offset At Aggregate Level
- Aggregate employment effects may roughly offset due to substitution and productivity effects.
- Studies (Acemoglu et al., Denmark research) show little net change in industry employment but significant occupational and organizational restructuring.