Glenn Diesen - Greater Eurasia Podcast Alastair Crooke: Iran Defeated Insurrection & Restored Deterrence
Feb 5, 2026
Alastair Crooke, former British diplomat and founder of Conflicts Forum, offers expert analysis on Iran and regional dynamics. He describes who directed the insurrection and how it was rolled back. He examines Iran’s restored deterrence, limits of U.S. military options, risks to Hormuz shipping, regional states’ reluctance to attack, and the great-power maneuvers complicating any strike.
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Early US Plan Sought A Quick Decapitation Strike
- Alastair Crooke argues Trump's early plan sought a quick, clean strike to topple Iran using external proxies and Israeli help.
- That plan failed as Iran's defenses and the complexity of attack logistics made a short victory impossible.
Iran's A2/AD Changed The Naval Calculus
- Iran has layered coastal defenses and mini-submarines, forcing the US armada to keep distance and reducing strike options.
- Drone swarms and anti-ship missiles create high attrition risk for US ships and munitions in any attack.
Iran Rejected Limited Exchanges; Threatened Total War
- Iran declared any foreign attack would trigger full-scale war with immediate, uncompromising retaliation.
- Tehran refused symbolic exchanges and ruled out limited tit-for-tat options to de-escalate.
