One Rental At A Time 10 Year at 4% What is Next
Oct 15, 2025
Discover insights into the recent drop in the 10-year note and its potential impact on mortgage rates. The host explores the Fed's views on the labor market and hints at upcoming rate cuts. Tune in for a discussion on the possibility of a refi boom as homeowners seek cash-out options. Learn what could bring move-up buyers back into the market and hear updates on mortgage demand trends. Plus, catch a glimpse of global economic concerns from China’s deflation and different inflation expectations across income levels.
AI Snips
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Episode notes
Watch Weekly MBA App Data
- Monitor the MBA weekly mortgage application data to gauge purchase and refi activity.
- Use week‑on‑week and year‑on‑year trends to time market moves rather than single data points.
Fed Won't Use MBS Purchases—For Now
- Powell said the Fed won't buy mortgage-backed securities to directly lower mortgage rates.
- The speaker notes MBS purchases worked during the pandemic, implying the Fed could use them if committed to cutting mortgage costs.
Fed Pauses Balance Sheet Runoff
- The Fed plans to stop running off portions of its balance sheet and will reinvest maturing assets.
- This modest tweak reduces tightening by keeping more MBS on the Fed's balance sheet.