
The Lawfare Podcast Lawfare Daily: Arne Westad on ‘The Coming Storm’
Apr 7, 2026
Arne Westad, Yale historian of modern international history and author of The Coming Storm, walks through historical great-power shifts and China’s rise. He contrasts 19th- and 20th-century power transitions with today. He discusses leadership personalities, risks of escalation, Taiwan de-escalation ideas, and how diplomacy and buying time can reduce the chance of major conflict.
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System Decay Depends On Predominant Powers’ Choices
- The rise of new powers sparks instability but its effects depend on how dominant powers manage the transition.
- Westad highlights Germany’s rise and Britain's retreat as central causes of late-19th-century systemic change.
Rising Powers Destabilize Retreating Orders
- New rising powers destabilize existing international systems when dominant powers withdraw from leadership.
- Westad compares late 19th-century Britain retreating from globalization to the United States retrenching as China rises, creating similar instability.
Economic Opening Didn’t Equal Political Liberalization
- Economic integration did not guarantee political liberalization in China because the Communist Party prioritizes retaining power.
- Westad expected economic opening but was surprised by the rapid rollback of freedoms under Xi after the 2010s.










