Gulf Intelligence Podcasts PODCAST: Daily Energy Markets - Jan. 21st
Jan 21, 2026
Colby Connolly, Head of Middle East Content at Energy Intelligence, joins Rustin Edwards, a crude oil trading expert, and Bora Bariman, a geopolitical analyst at Hormuz Straits Partnership. They dive into Mark Carney’s warning about global order disruptions and their effects on oil prices. Discussions include tight oil fundamentals, China's stockpiling, and the implications of geopolitical risks from Iran and Venezuela. The guests explore how these dynamics shape tanker rates, market volatility, and the broader energy sector outlook.
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Rupture Raises Short-Term Geopolitical Risk
- Mark Carney argued the post-war rules-based international order is rupturing rather than merely transitioning.
- Colby Connolly says that rupture raises short-term geopolitical risk premia that are mildly bullish for oil prices.
Geopolitics Provide A Floor, Macro Caps The Ceiling
- The market is range-bound because geopolitics provide a floor while macro weakness caps upside.
- Rustin Edwards expects a tighter bound unless one side (geopolitical or macro) breaks first.
Payments Architecture Is A Geopolitical Asset
- Payment-system resilience is becoming geopolitically strategic as states worry about U.S. gatekeeping.
- Bora highlights that alternatives (BRICS-style arrangements) and robust payment rails are key to a post‑rules world.