The Intangible Economy with Kai Wu

Michael Mauboussin: Base Rates, AI Adoption, and Investing in the Intangible Economy

24 snips
Mar 31, 2026
Guest
Michael Mauboussin
Michael Mauboussin, seasoned investor and author on decision-making and valuation, joins to weigh AI’s bold growth claims against historical base rates. He discusses diffusion models, megaproject lessons, why intangibles create fatter tails, who likely captures AI value across the stack, and the risks of massive preemptive capital spending. Short, sharp takes on forecasting, competitive dynamics, and intangible-driven market shifts.
Ask episode
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
ADVICE

Anticipate Delays And Cost Overruns In AI Data Center Buildouts

  • Expect large infrastructure projects to run late, cost more, and sometimes fail to deliver promised outcomes.
  • Mauboussin cites Flyvbjerg's database of 16,000 projects: <1% delivered on budget, on time, and to promised scope.
INSIGHT

Intangibles Create Fatter Tailed Outcomes

  • Intangible‑intensive firms have similar means/medians of returns but much larger standard deviations, producing fatter tails of spectacular winners and outright failures.
  • Mauboussin compares Amazon’s right‑tail outperformance to Enron’s collapse as a left‑tail example.
INSIGHT

AI Can Be Sustaining Or Disruptive Depending On Incumbents

  • AI can be sustaining for incumbents (strengthening Google/Meta/Amazon) or disruptive for new model labs; the outcome depends on incumbents' ability to integrate AI without undermining core franchises.
  • Mauboussin notes resource asymmetry: hyperscalers have deep pockets versus smaller labs that must raise capital.
Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode
Get the app