Why Aluminium Just Hit a Four Year High

We sat down with Alan Clark of CM Group — aka “Aluminium Alan” — one of our favourite people to speak with and a with tremendous commodity insights focused on the global aluminium, alumina and bauxite markets.

This episode is packed with detail on one of the world’s most important and underappreciated metals markets, from Guinea’s dominance in bauxite supply to the ripple effects of China’s smelting sector and the overlooked stories in molybdenum and vanadium.

In this conversation, Alan covers:

• The 5-2-1 rule and how much bauxite it really takes to make a ton of aluminium

• Why Guinea now accounts for ~75% of China’s bauxite imports and why analysts keep under-calling it

• What caused the alumina price to surge to a 4-year high in early 2025

• China’s hydro-exposed smelting sector and why rainfall dictates output in Yunnan

• The Iran / Middle East supply risk hiding in plain sight

• Molybdenum and China’s growing import dependency and what that means for prices

• Vanadium flow cell batteries gaining real traction in China and the supply chain complexity that follows

Follow Alan and CM Group:

https://www.cmgroup.net/our-staff/alan-clark/

This episode was recorded on 19 Feb 2026.

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TIMESTAMPS  

(0:00) Intro

(3:20) Guinea Bauxite Boom

(5:50) Alumina Price Spike

(16:40) China Model Goes Global

(36:10) Australia’s HPA Opportunity

(37:20) From Bauxite to Sapphire Wafers

(38:40) HPA Qualification and Cost Edge

(40:10) Substitution and Tariff Volatility

(51:00) Magnesium China Dependence

(54:20) Magnesium Price Spikes and Die Casting

(59:50) Gallium Extraction Add-Ons

(1:01:00) Molybdenum Cost Curve Story

(1:04:00) Vanadium and Flow Batteries

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