Best of the Spectator Americano: Trump strikes Iran
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Feb 28, 2026 
Jacob Heilbrunn, political commentator and foreign policy analyst, discusses the recent Iran strikes and their strategic stakes. He examines whether these actions aim for regime change and if there is any coherent plan. Topics include targeting senior commanders, neoconservative influence on policy, risks of regional escalation, and possible nightmare scenarios like migration and wider conflict.
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Trump Has Gambled His Presidency On Regime Change
- Donald Trump framed the strikes as regime-change and has staked his presidency on a high-risk all-in approach rather than a limited pinprick attack.
- Jacob Heilbrunn worries this mirrors Bush-style gambles and is unlikely to succeed given US track record in the Middle East and reliance on air power alone.
Hoping For Uprisings Is Wishful Thinking
- The administration seems to hope Iranian public uprisings will finish the job, but the regime is willing to kill thousands and fight to the end.
- Heilbrunn notes air campaigns historically fail to produce regime change and Iran's loyalists could resist fiercely.
Decapitation By Remote Control Is Implausible
- The strikes appear aimed at decapitation of Iran's leadership through remote strikes, a strategy Jacob Heilbrunn compares to viewing war as a video game.
- He doubts feasibility of killing top leaders and warns of overconfidence in remote-control operations.