Secrets and Spies Podcast: Espionage | Global Issues | Current Affairs

S10 Ep28: Global Security in 2026: Conflict, Cyber, and the End of Unipolarity with Sam Lichtenstein

Jan 24, 2026

Sam Lichtenstein, a RANE risk intelligence analyst who leads geopolitical and security forecasting, outlines 2026’s major risks. He covers rising violent conflicts across Africa and the Middle East. He discusses Taiwan coercion short of war, Russian asymmetric threats in Europe, and growing cyber and AI-enabled attack vectors. He also examines US domestic political violence and the shift away from a unipolar world.

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ADVICE

Use Nested Time Horizons For Forecasts

Build forecasts using nested timelines: daily, quarterly, annual, and decade frameworks to link tactics to strategy.
Sam Lichtenstein advises analysts to connect short-term events to long-term trends for clearer risk guidance.

INSIGHT

Armenia–Azerbaijan Normalization Is Fragile

Armenia–Azerbaijan normalization faces unresolved constitutional and border issues that could prompt Azerbaijani coercion.
Sam expects periodic cross-border pressure rather than a full-scale invasion in 2026.

ANECDOTE

Greenland Rhetoric Shows Maximalist Posturing

Sam recounts a US congressional resolution joking about invading Greenland to illustrate extreme rhetoric in 2026.
He labels a US invasion of a NATO ally as low likelihood but high-impact and emblematic of maximalist posturing.

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In this comprehensive discussion, Sam Lichtenstein from RANE (Risk Assistance Network & Exchange) joins Chris to dissect their annual geopolitical and security forecast. Sam provides insights into the geopolitical landscape for 2026, highlighting the challenges of predicting human behavior, the rise of violent conflicts, and the implications of AI and cybersecurity threats. They cover regional dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the Americas, emphasizing the interconnectedness of these issues and the potential for political violence in the US. Sam also discusses the breakdown of the unipolar order and its impact on global security.

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Read RANE’s 2026 Annual Forecast: https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/2026-annual-forecast

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Secrets and Spies sits at the intersection of intelligence, covert action, real-world espionage, and broader geopolitics in a way that is digestible but serious. Hosted by filmmaker Chris Carr and writer Matt Fulton, each episode examines the very topics that real intelligence officers and analysts consider on a daily basis through the lens of global events and geopolitics, featuring expert insights from former spies, authors, and journalists.