Rebel Capitalist News Another Private Credit Bombshell Was Just Revealed (You Won't Believe This)
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Mar 17, 2026 Discussion of alleged overvaluation in private credit and software loan marks. Exploration of PR tactics where firms admit problems while claiming buying power. Concerns about fundraising-driven underwriting deterioration and opaque funds with thousands of hidden holdings. Fears of redemption-driven fire sales, circular investments, and systemic risk from interconnected liabilities.
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Private Credit Marks Are Likely Way Too High
- Private credit valuations are likely massively overstated across the industry.
- George Gammon cites Apollo exec John Zito saying "all the marks are wrong," implying many loans should be marked far below par.
Capital Flows Broke Underwriting Discipline
- Excess capital inflows forced private credit funds to lower underwriting standards to deploy assets.
- Gammon explains funds accept weaker deals because they must earn fees and can't simply park cash in T-bills.
The Three Phase PR Script When Funds Break
- Managers respond to visible stress with staged messaging: deny, blame others, then claim stability.
- Gammon outlines the three-phase script: gaslight, admit others erred but not us, then seek bailout if needed.