The Two Matts Trump’s Iran war could not be going more wrong
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Mar 9, 2026 They debate the chaotic first days of Operation Epic Fury and whether the campaign is already unraveling. They explore Iran’s new supreme leader and how personal losses could harden Tehran’s stance. They flag economic fallout from oil shocks and market turmoil. They weigh a possible US‑Israel strategic split and probe the idea of a rising political dynasty shaping global policy.
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Early War Costs Outweigh Claimed Victories
- Operation Epic Fury has produced the opposite of a quick victory, stacking economic pain and regional instability within days of strikes.
- Oil passed $100 a barrel, markets fell and US service personnel returned in coffins while Iran appointed a more hostile successor, worsening the aftermath.
New Supreme Leader Hardens Iran's Stance
- Iran's new supreme leader is younger, closer to the Revolutionary Guards and personally aggrieved after his father's death in strikes.
- Matt d’Ancona argues this makes a negotiated 'victory' unlikely because the successor is more hostile and personally motivated.
Venezuela Playbook Won't Work In Iran
- Trump appears to have expected a Venezuela-style outcome but Iran's structure and power of the Revolutionary Guards make that implausible.
- The hosts note regime change in Iran isn't like Latin America because Iran's apparat and militias are intact.