ChinaTalk Moneyball and US State Department
Aug 22, 2022
Dan Spokojny, a former State Department FSO and founder of FP21, joins Jon Bateman, a senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment, to discuss reforming foreign policy decision-making. They tackle the limitations of current practices, emphasizing the need for evidence-based approaches over narrative-driven decisions. The conversation highlights the disparity in training between military and State Department officials, advocating for structured analysis and innovative forecasting. They also delve into the importance of integrating historical perspectives and utilizing technology in policymaking.
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State Department Internship
- Jordan recalls an internship at the State Department where writing skills were prioritized over analytical rigor.
- 'Juicy' cables were circulated, not those with real substance, revealing a focus on narrative.
Talent Evaluation
- While innate talent is valuable, effective talent evaluation is crucial.
- A General Manager needs a system, unlike individual players like Michael Jordan.
Data Collection
- Focus on collecting diverse data, including qualitative information, throughout the policy process.
- Track data points like responses to diplomatic asks and analyze them for better decision-making.
