Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory

Peter St-Onge Talks Dot-Com Crash, AI Bubbles, and Building Wealth Amid Market Turbulence | Impact Theory w/ Tom Bilyeu

28 snips
Feb 19, 2026
Peter St-Onge, an economist who rebuilt his career after the dot-com crash and earned a PhD, joins to analyze booms and busts. He compares AI hype to dot-com valuations. He explains how Fed policy and bailouts create boom-bust cycles. He discusses deglobalization, reserve currency risks, and why asset holders tend to benefit in today’s system.
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ANECDOTE

From Dot‑Com Windfall To Total Loss

  • Peter St-Onge lost his early dot-com fortune, became a bartender in Japan, then earned a PhD and rebuilt his career in economics.
  • That personal wipeout taught him to simplify investment theses and watch macro signals like interest rates and liquidity.
INSIGHT

Usage Vs Valuation Diverge

  • AI adoption will be widespread and transformative, similar to the internet in utility but possibly larger in economic impact.
  • However, asset values can still crash even if usage continues, so expect punctuated corrections.
INSIGHT

Fed Drives The Business Cycle

  • Broad recessions usually follow Fed-driven cycles of easy credit then sharp tightening, not random shifts in 'animal spirits.'
  • Understanding interest‑rate and liquidity mechanics helps predict boom–bust timing.
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