Ones and Tooze The War on Iran
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Mar 6, 2026 A deep look at how a U.S.–Israeli war on Iran could spread across the region and reshape global markets. They discuss munitions limits, costly missile defenses, and the offense versus defense imbalance. Energy risks for oil, gas and fertilizer markets get attention, along with broader regional economic fallout and the strategic posture of China.
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Conflict Is A Major Attritional Campaign
- The U.S.-Israeli campaign has hit roughly 2,000 Iranian targets and triggered large Iranian missile and drone reprisals.
- Adam Tooze frames the conflict as a major, attritional regional war rather than a limited strike, with unclear goals and unpredictable escalation risks.
Ammunition Paradox Makes Rapid War Production Hard
- Modern wars face an inherent ammunition paradox: stockpiling is wasteful yet just-in-time production fails under sudden demand.
- Tooze compares WWI shell crises to today's need for shadow factories versus costly peacetime savings.
Defensive Interceptors Drive The Supply Crisis
- Interceptors are the critical bottleneck because they must hit incoming missiles and are far costlier and technically demanding than offensive drones.
- Tooze notes THAAD rounds cost ~$15 million each and you may need three interceptors per ballistic missile, while annual production capacity is limited.