Hard Fork Can the U.S. Rein in Prediction Markets? + Joanna Stern on Her Year of A.I. Experiments + Our Producer Goes to Attention School
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May 8, 2026 
Rachel Cohn, producer who attended the Strother School of Radical Attention and studied attention practices. Joanna Stern, tech journalist and author who spent a year testing AI in daily life. They discuss scandals around prediction markets and possible regulation. Joanna shares her year with AI and what worked or misfired. Rachel reports on attention school exercises and the movement to resist attention commodification.
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Charles De Gaulle Thermometer Betting Scandal
- A suspicious spike at Charles de Gaulle's thermometer coincided with well-timed Polymarket temperature bets.
- The viral hair-dryer photo was AI-generated; the actual tampering method remains unknown despite a 4°C recorded jump.
Theory Of Insider Wisdom Failed In Practice
- The original academic case for prediction markets valued insider trading as information provision, but real-world incentives break that theory.
- Kevin recalls proponents arguing insiders improve signal, yet practical outcomes incentivize betrayal for profit instead.
Regulate Prediction Markets Like Casinos
- Treat prediction market platforms like gambling operators and require consumer protections.
- Enforce self-exclusion, mandatory age verification, advertising limits, and an active regulator to police insider trading and market integrity.
