Why is Indiana’s population growth in danger of cratering while the Indy area adds 405K people?

Indiana University demographers released projections last week that show the state's population growth cratering until it hits near-zero growth by the 2050s. In fact, more than two-thirds of Indiana’s 92 counties will see losses in population over the next 30 years, according to the estimates from the Indiana Business Research Center at the Indiana University Kelley School of Business. This can be explained by a grim but relatively simple phenomenon: The number of deaths in the state will begin surpassing the number of births in the 2040s. At that point, migration from other areas will account for all of Indiana’s population growth. Meager population growth would have serious repercussions for our labor force and economy, putting pressure on officials across the state to make Indiana as appealing a place to live as possible.

The counties with large cities will be the exceptions. The 11-county Indianapolis metro area is expected to add residents at a relatively robust clip over several decades. In fact, the metro area is projected to hit about 2,497,000 residents by 2050—an increase of nearly 405,000 from 2020. And the state’s five fastest-growing counties will be suburban Indianapolis counties. The question now is, “What should public officials on the city, county and state level do with this information?” Matt Kinghorn, the principal researcher on the IBRC study, is our guest this week to break down the numbers, explain what’s behind these expected trends, dig into the challenges facing the state and provide a preview for a tale of two different Indianas.

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