The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - February 11, 2026
Feb 11, 2026
Market movers and a mixed trading day with modest index shifts. A surprisingly strong payroll report and rising bond yields take center stage. Discussion of unemployment, wage gains, and labor force participation trends. Exploration of why inflation feels different and the distinction between disinflation and deflation.
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Stronger-Than-Expected Jobs Signal Health
- The jobs report surprised to the upside with 130,000 hires versus 55,000 expected, led by healthcare.
- Brian Szytel notes this strength and rising wages signal improving labor fundamentals without necessarily stoking inflation.
Wage Growth Outpacing Reported Inflation
- Hourly wages rose 0.4% in January and 3.7% year-over-year, outpacing a ~2.6% inflation read.
- Szytel frames this as a net positive for consumers and the economy overall.
Participation Rate Slowly Climbing
- Labor force participation ticked up to about 62.5% from the low 62% range, reversing a long-term decline.
- Szytel highlights demographics and lower prime-age male participation as drivers behind the long-term weakness.