Increments #74 - Disagreeing about Belief, Probability, and Truth (w/ David Deutsch)
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Oct 1, 2024 
David Deutsch, an influential thinker and author renowned for his contributions to the philosophy of science and quantum computation, takes center stage. He delves into whether belief is a useful lens for understanding cognition and debates the role of probability in meaningful analysis. The conversation challenges the limits of Bayesian reasoning, explores the complexities of truth, and critiques Popper's theories. Deutsch also reflects on the intricacies of language, creativity, and how they intersect with our understanding of reality.
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The Supermarket Pandemic Example
- Deutsch gives an example of a supermarket boss using past statistics to justify not stocking up before a pandemic.
- The boss's reliance on statistics without understanding context led to empty shelves.
The Discovery of Pulsars
- David Deutsch shares the story of pulsars' discovery, where a public observer noticed regular flashing missed by experts.
- Existing theories blinded experts to the possibility of regularly flashing stars.
Unpredictability of Human Behavior
- Deutsch emphasizes the unpredictability of creative processes and human behavior.
- This unpredictability challenges predictive theories in fields like economics.