
The Take Is the US negotiating with Iran or preparing to strike?
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Feb 26, 2026 Sina Toossi, a senior fellow who studies U.S.-Iran relations, offers a clear, concise read on the current standoff. He outlines why military buildup often accompanies talks. He discusses secrecy around Iran’s program and past strikes. He weighs Geneva diplomacy against the risk of escalation and describes how domestic protests shape state decisions.
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How Leaving the Iran Deal Fueled Today's Crisis
- Trump's 2018 withdrawal from the JCPOA created the current cycle of pressure, clandestine nuclear activity, and repeated crises.
- Sina Toossi links sanctions-driven economic collapse in Iran to a more entrenched, shadowed nuclear program and greater instability.
Strikes Drove Iran's Program Underground Not Away
- Military strikes last summer targeted above-ground facilities but pushed Iran's program underground and made verification harder.
- Iran expelled IAEA inspectors and retained enriched-uranium stockpiles, raising uncertainty about capabilities.
Buildup and Talks Are Part Of Psychological Warfare
- The current moment is psychological warfare: public threats and military buildup coexist with diplomacy to pressure Tehran.
- Toossi warns Iran now promises stronger retaliation even against limited strikes, increasing escalation risk.

