The David Lin Report 'This Is A Crisis': Fund Manager's Explosive Forecast For This Critical Sector | Tomasz Nadrowski
May 6, 2026
Tomasz Nadrowski, portfolio manager at Amvest Terraden and author of Mineral War, specializes in critical minerals and supply-chain geopolitics. He digs into China’s dominance in smelting and why Western refining capacity matters. He highlights the riskiest materials, policy levers to rebuild processing, and how shifting demand from AI, batteries, and defense will reshape markets.
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China's Long Game In Refining Creates Structural Dependence
- China dominates smelting and refining across many critical minerals, not just rare earths, creating systemic dependence for the West.
- This dominance accumulated over three decades and can't be unwound in one U.S. electoral cycle due to downstream manufacturers' cost-driven choices.
Specific Elements That Pose The Biggest Supply Risk
- Several niche elements are near-monopolized by China: gallium ~99%, heavy rare earths ~similar, tungsten ~82% controlled by China.
- These high concentration rates across midstream and upstream make supply shocks and geopolitical leverage likely.
Invest Across The Value Chain Not Just Exploration
- Invest across the full value chain, not just exploration, because refined buyers determine where output can be sold in a bifurcated market.
- Support onshoring/refining projects like the Korea Zinc smelter in Tennessee to capture byproducts (indium, tellurium, gallium).
