The Missing Middle Podcast The Statistical Illusion Inside Canada’s Housing Data
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Mar 18, 2026 They unpack why official housing start counts can be misleading and how timing and definitions mask real trends. They explore how most new supply is small condos, shrinking average home size and outdoor space. They examine falling pre-construction sales across cities and what that signals for future supply and prices.
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Housing Starts Are A Lagging Indicator
- CMHC counts a housing start only after foundation work reaches grade, which can lag actual project decisions by 18–24 months for high-rises.
- That timing means 2025 starts largely reflect investment choices made in 2023, so starts are a backward-looking indicator.
Add Early Indicators Not Replace Starts
- Don't rely solely on CMHC housing starts for real-time market signals; add earlier indicators like excavation permits or 'hole' counts.
- Keep the current starts series for continuity but publish complementary, earlier-stage metrics to reflect present conditions.
Composition Effects Hide What We're Building
- Aggregated start counts treat a studio condo and a four-bedroom house as equal, obscuring what types of homes are actually being built.
- Composition effects made average detached sizes rise while overall median home size fell as small detached starter homes were replaced by 500–600 sq ft towers.