Ep 392 : A two-speed property market in 2026: where prices rise (and where they won’t)

Jan 20, 2026

Explore the factors shaping the property market in 2026, from lending volumes and interest rate expectations to interstate migration trends. Discover how a two-speed market is emerging, with affordable properties thriving while premium stocks lag. Insights on how buyer behavior has shifted due to serviceability limits and low interest rates provide a critical perspective. Learn which cities are poised for growth and where caution is advised, making this a must-listen for anyone involved in property decisions.

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INSIGHT

Use Migration As A Sentiment Gauge

Interstate migration shows sentiment shifts more than absolute housing need and can lead prices.
Long-term trends (e.g. net movement to Queensland) set a useful baseline for reading sentiment changes.

INSIGHT

State Sentiment Snapshot

Western Australia and Queensland show stronger-than-normal net inflows, supporting local price growth.
Victoria's outflow has largely normalised after COVID, so sentiment there is mixed.

INSIGHT

Property Cycles And Mean Reversion

Capital-city cycles average ~10 years growth and ~7 years flat, but individual cities deviate widely.
Mean reversion matters: timing your expectations depends on where a city sits in its cycle.

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If you’re planning to buy, sell, upgrade, or invest in property in 2026, this episode cuts through the noise and focuses on what actually drives prices. Rather than forecasts or headlines, Stuart unpacks the evidence-based factors that matter most, including lending volumes, borrowing capacity, interest rate expectations, interstate migration, and where each capital city sits in its property cycle.

A clear picture is emerging of a two-speed market. More affordable properties are seeing stronger demand and faster growth, while higher-priced and premium stock is struggling to keep pace. He explores why this split is happening, how serviceability ceilings and years of ultra-low interest rates have reshaped buyer behaviour, and why sentiment is playing such a powerful role right now.

You’ll also hear how relative value and mean reversion help explain why some cities are late in their growth cycle, while others may still have years ahead of them. Stuart discusses which markets appear well-positioned for 2026, where caution is warranted, and why patience may be rewarded in areas that have underperformed for a long time.

Whether you’re an owner-occupier, first home buyer, or investor, this episode provides a clear, data-led framework to help you think more clearly about property decisions in 2026, and beyond.

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