HousingWire Daily What the jobs data means for mortgage rates
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Feb 12, 2026 Logan Modashami, lead analyst at HousingWire who studies macro and housing markets, breaks down January jobs and why mortgage rates hardly moved. He highlights sector concentration in healthcare, explains bond yield reactions, and outlines Fed thresholds that would change policy. The conversation covers risks like a jobs rebound, effects on existing-home sales, spreads, inventory, and affordability.
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Jobs Beat Hides Narrow Strength
- The January jobs report beat estimates but was narrowly driven by healthcare and social services, masking broader weakness.
- Logan Modashami warns that underlying labor softness means the Fed still needs to see the market "break" before cutting rates.
Bond Reaction Was Short Lived
- Bond yields jumped immediately after the report then faded as markets questioned its breadth, so mortgage rates barely moved overall.
- Modashami notes mortgage spreads and existing rate-cut expectations limited any sustained rise in rates.
Jobs Print Reduces Cut Pressure
- Despite weak annual job revisions, the Fed remains focused on labor; even a modest positive print gives hawks cover to delay cuts.
- The report therefore reduces near-term pressure on the Fed to start cutting rates.