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War, Oil, and the Debt Spiral: How to Invest Through the Chaos | Brett Rentmeester

Mar 11, 2026
Brett Rentmeester, founder of Windrock Wealth Management, advises on portfolio construction and hard assets amid geopolitical and macro uncertainty. He discusses how war and oil shocks can ripple through markets. Short-term liquidity and risk checks, watching bonds and credit spreads, and diversifying beyond stocks and bonds are highlighted. He frames the era as a structural shift driven by debt, money printing, AI, and resource competition.
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INSIGHT

War Creates Volatility And Uncertain Outcomes

  • War creates a “fog of war” that increases volatility and headline-driven whipsaws in markets.
  • Brett Rentmeester warns against strong convictions on any single outcome because decision-makers and facts can change quickly.
INSIGHT

Use Probability Thinking Not Certainty

  • Invest by thinking in probabilities instead of black-and-white outcomes to avoid poor short-term decisions.
  • Maggie Lake and Brett emphasize humility and framing scenarios with likelihoods rather than absolute forecasts.
ADVICE

Don't Chase Short Term Oil Spikes

  • Avoid chasing short-term spikes like oil rallies; markets can reverse quickly and futures show long-term calm.
  • Brett notes oil jumped then retraced within 48 hours and long-term futures were not pricing sustained extreme levels.
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