The Dividend Cafe Can the Bull Market Continue?
Mar 27, 2026
A market check on whether the long bull run remains structurally intact amid recent volatility. Discussion of how labor market uncertainty, tightening credit conditions, and corporate profit expectations shape sustainability. Exploration of different start dates and what typically ends bulls. Portfolio positioning and dividend growth investing are highlighted as defensive strategies.
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Bull Market Start Date Is Largely Semantic
- Bull market start dates are semantic and can validly be placed in 2009, 2019, or late 2022 depending on definition.
- David L. Bahnsen shows the same multi-year uptrend despite intermittent big drops like COVID and 2022, so the label depends on how you count interruptions.
Remembering The 2009 Generational Market Bottom
- Bahnsen recalls being in New York at the generational market bottom in March 2009 and notes the long compounding run since then.
- He contrasts that multi-year bull arc with isolated big drops like 2011 and 2018 to show how history looks smoother over long horizons.
Stock Prices Are Profits Plus Sentiment
- Stock prices reflect two components: corporate profits and sentiment about those future profits.
- Bahnsen emphasizes profits drive long-term value while sentiment moves prices in the shorter term, both rooted in economic reality.