The Inside Story Podcast How are the Gulf state economies connected?
Mar 27, 2026
Nikolay Kozjharnov, energy security expert on Gulf production and transport. Torbjorn Soltvedt, risk analyst on supply chains and commodity impacts. Cornelia Meyer, macroeconomist and oil and gas specialist. They discuss how the Iran war strains Gulf energy, transport chokepoints, fertilizer and critical commodity shortages, alternate export routes, and how disruptions could ripple into global inflation and logistics.
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Gulf Economies Are More Than Oil Exports
- The Gulf states are deeply embedded beyond oil and gas in global petrochemicals, transport hubs, and fertiliser supplies.
- Nikolay Kozjharnov highlights fertiliser, feedstock for plastics, and transport roles that threaten many countries' food and industrial chains.
This Crisis Is A Long Lasting Supply Shock
- The disruption is a major supply shock that will last and could be harder to recover from than demand shocks like COVID.
- Cornelia Meyer notes damaged installations (IEA: 40 sites) and a 17% hit to Qatar LNG needing 2–5 years to fix.
Ripple Effects Will Raise Global Inflation
- Price rises and shortages are cascading globally: fuel, plastics, packaging and fertiliser will drive higher inflation.
- Torbjorn Soltvedt points to three-to-four week tanker transit times and exhausted front-loaded cargoes now delivering.