The New Liberal Podcast What happens to humanity after the spike? ft. Dean Spears
Apr 27, 2026
Dean Spears, economist and author of After the Spike, studies population, development, and policy. He explains why global population is likely to peak and then decline. He explores persistent low birth rates, why common explanations fall short, cultural drivers behind parenting choices, and which policies actually change long-run fertility trends.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Low Birth Rates Are Universally Distributed
- Low birth rates are widespread across rich and developing countries, including every U.S. state and most Indian regions, so it's not limited to a specific culture or income level.
- Spears emphasizes the long-run decline and the absence of historical automatic reversals in cohort fertility.
Contraception Is Necessary But Not Sufficient
- Contraception and abortion access are essential for reproductive freedom but do not fully explain long-term fertility decline.
- Spears contrasts countries like France and South Korea to show similar legal access but very different birth rates, so other forces matter.
Romania Shows Coercion Doesn't Restore Fertility
- Romania under Ceausescu banned abortion and contraception and saw a temporary birth spike, but rates later fell despite continued coercion.
- Spears uses this historical example to show coercive restrictions didn't restore long-term fertility.
