
Macro Voices MacroVoices #525 Lyn Alden: Iran Contagion, Inflation & Private Credit
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Mar 26, 2026 Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank Research, offers big-picture geopolitical and market analysis. Lyn Alden, investment strategist and founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, discusses macro, energy, and inflation. They dig into Iran-related disruptions and multipolar shifts. They cover oil-driven economic pain, persistent versus transient inflation, and strains in private credit markets.
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Who Benefits From Middle East Disruption
- The Iran conflict benefits Russia via higher energy prices and reduced sanction pressure, while it's negative for China and especially Europe.
- Alden notes Russia may gain on both oil and fertilizer markets as Middle East disruption tightens supplies.
Food Inflation As The Second Wave Risk
- Food inflation is a severe second-order risk because fertilizer and gas supply disruptions persist across crop cycles.
- Alden warns fertilizer price spikes squeeze farmers now and can cause prolonged food-price pain in emerging markets.
Emerging Markets Are Most Vulnerable To Energy Shock
- Emerging markets will suffer disproportionally from energy and food shocks; some FX moves have already priced vulnerability.
- Alden cites Egypt's FX move and tripled gas import bill as an example of rapid strain on poorer importers.






