The Compound and Friends

True or False - Private Credit Is This Generation’s Subprime

140 snips
Mar 6, 2026
Garrett Baldwin, research economist and author of Me and the Money Printer, brings sharp market analysis. He unpacks liquidity and Fed support, explains odd rangebound price behavior, and dives into private credit risks. They also probe oil and geopolitical escalation, passive flows and algos, plus where leverage and BDC stress could matter.
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INSIGHT

Insider Buys Signal Momentum Turning Points

  • Insider buying is a high-conviction signal that can mark the end of negative momentum in a broken stock.
  • Josh cites MSCI and Trade Desk insider purchases that preceded strong rebounds.
INSIGHT

Private Credit Is The Shadow Banking Risk

  • Private credit is the most likely origin point of the next financial stress because it's opaque and large, not necessarily identical to 2008 subprime.
  • Garrett and hosts call private credit the modern shadow banking risk, with refinancing and liquidity strains looming.
ADVICE

Watch Public BDCs As Private Credit Canary

  • Monitor publicly traded BDCs and BDC metrics as near real-time stress indicators for private credit.
  • Michael Batnick says BDCs are immediate, liquid windows into defaults and redemption pressure.
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