The Long Game with Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer Mexico, Iran, Anthropic and the SOTU Signals
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Feb 25, 2026 They break down the foreign policy signals in the State of the Union and why China was downplayed. They debate the case against U.S. military strikes on Iran and the risks of Iranian retaliation. They track violence and political fallout after the killing of cartel leader El Mencho in Mexico. They unpack the Pentagon’s standoff with Anthropic over AI limits, surveillance, and autonomous weapons.
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SOTU Downplayed China Despite Strategic Importance
- The State of the Union gave little concrete foreign policy guidance and notably underplayed China despite its centrality to U.S. strategy.
- Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer note the speech downplayed China to avoid upsetting planned high-level meetings and reflects internal U.S. ambivalence on China policy.
ICBM Framing Could Lower Bar For Military Action
- Trump introduced missiles/ICBM capability as a fresh rationale for action against Iran, shifting focus from only nuclear weapons to delivery systems.
- Jake Sullivan says Iran's ICBM capability is a long-term problem, not an imminent threat, and may be a pretext to justify strikes.
Unclear U.S. Ceiling Makes Iranian Retaliation Likely
- Uncertainty about U.S. objectives raises Iran's incentive to escalate if attacked, increasing risk compared with the 12-day strike last year.
- Jake Sullivan warns lack of a clear U.S. ceiling makes Iranian retaliation likelier and more severe.