The Reason Interview With Nick Gillespie

What the Media Gets Wrong About Crime

20 snips
Feb 4, 2026
Jeff Asher, a crime data analyst and former CIA analyst who runs AH Datalytics, explains recent city-by-city trends. He discusses the sharp multi-year drop in murders and why 2025 may be historically low. Conversation covers how crime stats are gathered, why public perception lags reality, media mistakes in coverage, and factors that might be driving nationwide declines.
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ADVICE

Don't Report Short-Term Swings

  • Avoid early, short-term comparisons when reporting crime statistics.
  • Jeff Asher advises using longer samples and larger city samples to predict national trends reliably.
INSIGHT

Widespread Declines, Not Isolated Wins

  • Recent declines in murder are widespread rather than isolated to a single 'model' city; dozens of cities show large drops.
  • Outliers now are places not seeing declines, while many midsize cities recorded historic lows.
INSIGHT

The 1990s Drop Had Many Causes

  • The 1990s decline in crime has no single proven cause; multiple factors like policing, incarceration, and community investment likely combined.
  • Asher compares this to having ingredients for a cake without knowing the recipe or order to bake it.
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