Odd Lots The Cardboard Boxpocalypse and the State of the US Economy
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Sep 15, 2025 
Ryan Fox, a containers and packaging analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, dives into the quirky world of cardboard boxes. He discusses the alarming drop in box shipments, linking it to consumer health and the broader economy. With humor, he reveals how rising box prices contradict falling demand, presenting them as an unexpected economic indicator. The conversation also highlights the challenges in e-commerce packaging and the industry's push for sustainability amid fluctuating market pressures. Get ready to think differently about the boxes around you!
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Box Maker's Certificate And Origins
- Ryan described the box maker's certificate stamp that reveals which U.S. facility made a box and its material mix.
- He noted corrugated boxes only became common in the late 1890s and evolved from costly wooden crates.
Boxes Signal A Consumer-Goods Recession
- Ryan Fox judges the market as experiencing a consumer-goods recession with box shipments down ~12% from pandemic highs.
- First-half 2025 box square footage fell substantially to roughly 190 billion square feet.
Vertical Integration Shapes U.S. Pricing
- U.S. market structure is highly vertically integrated; mills supply their own box plants reducing open-market price signals.
- Globally there is ~50 million tons oversupply of containerboard, pressuring worldwide pricing dynamics.
