What Really Matters with Walter Russell Mead How Everyone Got Iran Wrong
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Mar 28, 2026 
Walter Russell Mead, historian and foreign-policy columnist, unpacks Iran's regional aims and why both appeasers and hawks misread them. He explains the strategic risks of strait closures, how the JCPOA delayed but did not solve threats, and the hard choices facing U.S. policymakers. Short, sharp takes on geopolitics, military signaling, and what comes next.
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Houthi Closure Of Red Sea Is Serious Escalation
- The Houthis can close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and have done so before, making Red Sea disruptions a credible escalation beyond threats to desalination or energy sites.
- Closing the Red Sea would amplify global energy pressure because oil rerouted from Hormuz already uses pipelines across the Arabian Peninsula into Red Sea routes.
Ukraine Has Rejected Reported US Push To Cede Donbass
- Leaks that the Trump administration pressures Ukraine to cede Donbass territory are not new and have not swayed Ukrainian resistance.
- Ukraine refuses because ceding fortified ground would give Russia a staging area and avoid Russia's heavy military costs to take it.
Troop Leak Is Signal Not Certainty
- Rumors of a 10,000 troop US deployment to the Middle East are part of wartime signaling and leak-driven uncertainty rather than confirmed action.
- Both American and Iranian statements often aim to create doubt, so focus on observed events not press leaks.
