Global Macro Update Why Everyone Was Wrong About the Global Oil Glut
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Feb 20, 2026 Jan Stuart, global energy strategist at Piper Sandler and veteran oil-market analyst. He untangles claims of a global oil glut and explains China’s inventory builds. He breaks down recent OPEC supply moves, late-2025 disruptions, and why U.S. shale still grows. He maps where future supply and demand may come from and why 2026 could surprise markets.
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China Absorbed The 2025 Surplus
- Jan Stuart argues there was surplus oil in 2025 but no price-depressing glut because China absorbed most of it into inventories.
- He estimates China added nearly 300 million barrels, turning a global surplus into targeted stock builds.
OPEC's Extra Pumping Didn't Crash Prices
- OPEC added roughly 1.5 million barrels per day to markets in 2025 but prices didn't collapse.
- Stuart suggests producers knew China would take barrels, so extra supply didn't crater the market.
End‑2025 Disruptions Tightened The Market
- Late-2025 supply disruptions (Kazakhstan, Russia) and weather drew inventories in Dec–Jan, easing glut fears.
- Stuart cites lost volumes and draws as reasons prices steadied into Jan 2026.