Many Happy Returns Gold & Silver Crash: Is Bullion’s Bull Run Over?
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Feb 4, 2026 A rapid 11% drop in gold and 30% slide in silver sparks a forensic look at what broke the rally. They trace valuation models linking inflation, real rates and the dollar to metal prices. Leverage, ETFs and margin mechanics get blamed for amplifying the plunge. They parse a key Fed nomination as the catalyst and debate whether this was a peak or just a violent correction.
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Precious Metals Are Extremely Spiky
- Gold and silver show highly spiky price profiles with dramatic rallies followed by steep corrections.
- Ramin warns treating gold as speculation risks getting burned by late-stage rallies and crashes.
Simple Fair-Price Drivers Explained
- Ramin's fair-price models link precious metals to CPI, US real rates, and dollar strength.
- He finds gold ~33% overvalued and silver ~2x fair price before the crash.
Narrative And Central Banks Drove The Rally
- Central bank buying and narratives about a weaponized dollar fuelled retail ETF FOMO into metals.
- That momentum, especially from Asia, amplified the rally beyond model-based fair value.