Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: March 26th, 2026
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Mar 26, 2026 Matthias Cormann, OECD secretary-general offering rapid policy and outlook takes. Jonathan Lieber, Eurasia Group US research head with sharp geopolitical analysis. George Goncalves, MUFG US macro strategist on bond markets. They discuss weakening Treasury demand and higher real yields. They debate regional conflict risks, diplomatic options, and how energy shocks reshape inflation and fiscal space.
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Real Yields Are Driving Treasury Repricing
- U.S. Treasury demand weakness reflects a global repricing of rates and buyer pullback amid fiscal concerns.
- George Goncalves points to real yields driving higher 10- and 30-year rates and two-year selling off toward ~4% as a market washout.
Trade Small When Two-Sided Geopolitical Risk Looms
- In highly uncertain markets with two-sided large risks, remain tactical and avoid committing large capital positions.
- Goncalves recommends trading small and sitting on hands when conviction is low around conflict-driven volatility.
Geopolitics Breaks The Central Bank Backstop
- Geopolitical shocks remove the usual central bank backstop because monetary policy can't fix physical constraints like closed shipping lanes.
- Goncalves says central banks 'can't print molecules' or barrels, making this shock uniquely destabilizing.