Odd Lots How War in Iran Will Squeeze America's Farmers Even Further
82 snips
Mar 19, 2026 
Mike Rohlfsen, Agris Academy co-founder and former Cargill trader, joins Jeff Kazin, an ag risk adviser with decades in commodities. They dig into how war in Iran rattles fertilizer and energy costs, why land rents are crushing farm margins, how tariffs boosted Brazil, and why storage, hedging, and planting choices have turned farming into a high-stakes trading game.
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Most Fertilizer Was Bought Before The Latest Spike
- The fertilizer spike hit at a bad moment, but many US farmers are partially shielded because most spring fertilizer had already been purchased or positioned.
- Jeff Kazin says replacement costs from the Arab Peninsula are not fully reflected in US prices because product for this season is largely already here.
Flat Crop Prices Meet Exploding Farm Costs
- US row-crop farmers face a decade-long squeeze because futures prices are roughly flat since 2016 while land, equipment, insurance, and living costs keep rising.
- Jeff Kazin says land rent can consume half of a corn acre’s cost, and crop-insurance subsidies help bid rents toward zero margin before shocks hit.
Farmland Prices Detached From Farm Economics
- Farmland no longer cash-flows like a normal business asset; Jeff Kazin says prime land trades more like gold on expected appreciation than on operating returns.
- Farmers survive by squeezing more output per acre through technology, not by getting higher prices for corn or soybeans.
