Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: December 29th, 2025
Dec 29, 2025
Cameron Dawson, Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth, analyzes market leadership shifts, emphasizing the importance of equal-weight S&P earnings as it relates to semiconductor cycles. Deborah Cunningham, CIO for Global Liquidity Markets at Federated Hermes, shares insights on Fed policy impacts and highlights potential rate cuts in 2026 amid evolving liquidity conditions. Retail analyst Dana Telsey discusses strong holiday performance, contrasting the successes of off-price retailers with the challenges faced by giants like Target.
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Tariffs Worsen The K-Shaped Recovery
- Tariffs and a weaker dollar exacerbate a K-shaped recovery, hurting small businesses and low-income consumers.
- Large corporates and data-center-heavy GDP gains mask consumer fragility.
Watch Fed Dissents Not Just Headlines
- Expect more internal Fed dissent and less unanimity on policy votes in 2026.
- Price rate moves by watching dot plots and dissents rather than betting on rapid easing.
Position For Gradual, Not Rapid, Easing
- Markets may be overpricing rate cuts; the terminal Fed rate stays around 3%.
- Position for a slower easing path with cuts likely but limited through 2026.