The Economics of Everyday Things 13. Carnival Games
20 snips
Feb 12, 2026 
Elliot Simmons, a former carnival-worker who recounts running and sometimes rigging games. Matthew Greisen, a retired journalist-engineer who collected data on win rates. Olivia Turner, GM of Redbone Products who builds and supplies carnival-game parts. They talk about how games are engineered to favor operators, payout strategies and metrics, rigged setups, costs of running midways, and how to spot a gaffed game.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Games Built To Favor The House
- Carnival games are engineered with custom parts and subtle design tweaks to favor the operator's payouts.
- Olivia Turner explains rims, bottles, and rings are deliberately altered to reduce win rates.
The Data-Obsessed Carnival Researcher
- Matthew Greisen spent years observing and measuring carnival games to quantify their odds.
- He recorded data across dozens of games and published his findings in Carnival Secrets.
Throwing Stock Explains Operator Choices
- Operators think in terms of 'throwing stock' — the percentage of revenue returned as prizes — not individual odds.
- Game mechanics are adjusted if payouts exceed the operator's target stock level.
