The Rachman Review The heavy cost of the war on Iran
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Mar 19, 2026 
Jack Watling, defence analyst at the Royal United Services Institute and author, explains why the Strait of Hormuz is central to global oil flows. He outlines staged military options to reopen the strait and the limits of naval escorts. He examines drone and uncrewed threats, allied roles and whether targeted strikes or infrastructure seizures can end the conflict.
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Low Signature Weapons Create Long Term Disruption
- Iran can sustain a long-term, low-level threat because many strike systems are low-signature and can be launched from far inland.
- A few strategically placed mines can create persistent risk for oil and LNG tankers, amplifying disruption.
Existing Plans Were Ignored By Political Leadership
- Plans to handle Hormuz existed but US political leadership didn't engage traditional policymaking, so many plans were not executed.
- Watling argues political discounting of risk and overreliance on precision strike led to strategic surprise.
Drones Undermine Traditional Naval Protection
- Drone and uncrewed systems shift naval threat geometry by enabling strikes from hundreds of kilometres away and out to the Gulf of Oman.
- Navies can protect themselves but struggle to extend protection to dispersed civilian shipping.
