"Significant Strain" Ahead For The Economy | David Rosenberg bnhgyhu.

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Mar 5, 2026

David Rosenberg, economist and founder of Rosenberg Research, offers a skeptical read on the touted policy-driven growth. He discusses how AI capex masks weak traditional investment. He warns the stock market’s wealth effect and collapsing savings rate are propping up consumption. He flags credit strain for lower-income households and risks from valuation extremes and geopolitical shocks.

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INSIGHT

Savings Rate Is The Fragile Tipping Point

Personal savings rate is the key fragile aggregate to watch.
Rosenberg warns savings have plunged (about half pre-COVID norm) and if it mean-reverts upward without income growth, consumer spending will collapse.

INSIGHT

Credit Is Keeping Lower-Income Consumers Afloat

Lower- and middle-income households are surviving on credit expansion rather than income.
Rosenberg highlights surging credit-card growth and buy-now-pay-later usage while delinquency rates on cards, autos and personal loans are rising.

INSIGHT

AI CapEx Is Creating A Highly Correlated Market Trade

The AI investment boom is highly correlated across sectors and may create overcapacity.
Rosenberg warns AI-driven capex ties energy, industrials, REITs and more together and could produce diluted returns and future deflation from excess supply.

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The Administration tells us that a new "Golden Age" for the American economy is now underway, and that we should see substantial material incremental GDP growth this year from the policies it has put in place through acts like the One Big Beautiful Bill, tax relief, deregulation, tariffs and new trade deals purported to bring $trillions of new foreign investment into the US.Today's guest, however, is much more skeptical of the promise of these policies as well as the overall prospects for the economy.And now the US is at war with Iran. How will that impact the situation?For guidance, we turn to highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research.

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