The Inside Story Podcast How much control will the US have over Venezuela's oil?
Jan 31, 2026
Phil Gunson, senior analyst on Venezuelan politics. Andrew Lipow, oil industry analyst focused on crude and infrastructure. Elias Ferrer, analyst of Venezuela’s oil-sector politics. They discuss recent oil reforms and US involvement. They debate whether reforms signal real opening, the infrastructure and investment hurdles, shifting profit terms, political resistance, and who stands to gain from the changes.
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Hope Without Full Democratic Input
- Venezuelans feel hope as immediate economic signs improve, but democratic accountability is shaky.
- Elias Ferrer notes people welcome relief yet worry decisions are being made without broad public input.
Orinoco Crude Trades At A Significant Discount
- Orinoco crude is very heavy and sells at a discount, making production economics challenging at current prices.
- Andrew Lipow explains heavy crude requires costly upgrading and trades about $10 less than benchmark grades.
Infrastructure Decay Blocks Recovery
- Venezuela's power grid, pipelines and ports need urgent repair before large-scale exports resume reliably.
- Lipow says infrastructure decay and security concerns make Venezuela 'uninvestable' without legal and operational guarantees.